📊 Market Data · May 22, 2026 · syntheticfuelsmarket.ai SAF Market Data May 2026:Production Doubled, Supply Gap Remains Wide IATA data, EU mandate compliance, production capacity breakdown and the price incentive layer 📅 May 22, 2026 ⏱ 5 min read ✍️ BESS Energie SRL · syntheticfuelsmarket.ai Market Data SAF 2026 Production The latest market data on sustainable aviation fuel presents a picture of strong growth against a backdrop of persistent shortfall. SAF production nearly doubled in 2025 — yet it still represents less than 1% of aviation fuel. Understanding the numbers, the producers, and what drives the gap is essential for anyone tracking the e-fuels investment opportunity. 0.6% SAF share of aviation fuel 2025 IATA SAF Monitor 2026 ×2 SAF production growth in 2025 IATA / industry data 1.5 Mt Neste SAF capacity 2025 World’s largest single producer €6/L EU subsidy for PtL e-fuels Reuters / EU Commission 2026 SAF Production by Pathway — May 2026 📊 SAF Market Share by Production Technology · 2026 Estimate HEFA/HVO ~72% market share Fischer-Tropsch ~18% Alcohol-to-Jet ~7% PtL e-SAF <3% Estimates based on IATA, Transport & Environment and industry data · Not audited figures Key Producers — Capacity Snapshot ProducerTechnologyCapacity 2025/2026PtL Sub-mandate?Status NesteHEFA/HVO1,500,000 t/yrNo✅ Operational TotalEnergies GrandpuitsHEFA biorefinery230,000 t/yrNoStarting 2026 LanzaTech FLITE (Ghent)Alcohol-to-Jet79,000 t/yrPartialTarget 2028 INERATEC ERA ONEPtL FT~1,000 t/yrYes✅ Operational Infinium RoadrunnerPtL e-diesel~10,000 t/yrYesStarting 2026 Norsk e-Fuel (Norway)PtL FT10,000 t/yrYesTarget 2027 Industrial-scale synthetic fuel production — the critical scaling challenge for the eSAF sub-mandate · Photo: Unsplash The EU Subsidy Layer The EU has introduced financial support of up to €6 per litre for e-fuels and €0.50 per litre for biofuels, with Reuters estimating the scheme could fund up to 216 million litres of synthetic fuel. At current production costs of approximately €8–10/litre for PtL e-SAF, this subsidy effectively reduces the price delta with conventional Jet A-1 (approximately €0.75/litre) from approximately €7–9/litre to €1–3/litre — a range where airline offtake agreements become commercially viable. 📌 What to Watch The critical market signal in the coming months will be the number of large-scale PtL projects reaching Final Investment Decision. LanzaTech FLITE Ghent (€500M, 79,000 t/year) has already confirmed. Each new FID adds to the supply pipeline that will determine whether the 2030 eSAF sub-mandate can realistically be met. Current data suggests the compliance gap will be significant — but the economics are improving faster than most expected. Sources: IATA SAF Monitor 2026 · Neste official 2025 capacity · TotalEnergies Grandpuits official · EU SAF subsidy scheme (Reuters/Biofuels International) · LanzaTech FLITE Ghent May 2026 · INERATEC ERA ONE official · Infinium Roadrunner FID June 2025 · Transport & Environment 2024 Disclaimer: Editorial content — not financial advice. BESS Energie SRL · syntheticfuelsmarket.ai · BCE BE 0698.949.732